Vision 2025: Future Challenges and Opportunities facing the logistics sector

 What skills and knowledge does the logistics worker of 2025 need ?

 LSA Chair, Carl Lomas, comments,

By 2025 TfL report there will be a 30% increase in demand for public transport, Heathrow runway three will be about to open, DfT forecast benefits exceeding 60 billion pounds to the UK economy. IoC report as much as 60% of retail purchase will be home delivered.

Phones will be a hundred times faster and real-time proof of delivery matched with very accurate time slots will co-ordinate the whole supply chain to reach new levels of customer fulfilment. This will strain peak congestion and clean air issues in the inner cities will be at breaking point, we are likely to see more congestion zone areas across the UK and they may well involve clean air conditions.

The 2040 legislation to end production of conventional petrol and diesel engines will be only 15 years away and electric vehicles will have longer ranges. Supporting the increased demand for public transport commuting between cities, HS2 should be operational for 2025.

By 2025 average age achieved will be around ninety. Individual incomes may not have increased, but focus on training will reach a point where vocational apprenticeships hold respect against today's academic positions. Will we see full-time education to age 25 ?, will it be predominantly vocational ?

Envisage the logistics sector in less than 10 years from now...

LSA Logistics Vision 2025

Transport technology by 2025

• Zero emission EV electric predominantly in use
• Battery technology trials in soft nuclear cells.
• Lorry convoy, platoons of truck will be common place in 2025.

Heathrow 2025, third runway likely open – economic benefits exceed 60 billion pounds (DfT),

The Department for Transport has claimed that the Heathrow third runway will bring economic benefits to passengers and the wider economy worth up to £60 billion.

Heathrow, the UK’s only “Hub” airport serving as a layover point for long-distance travellers, has been operating at 98 per cent of capacity for more than a decade, while Gatwick is also approaching its limits. Unable to meet the ever-increasing demand for capacity, Heathrow has been overtaken as the world’s busiest airport Dubai International. Between them Gatwick and Heathrow hosted more than 100 million travellers last year - with more seeking to come every day.

TFL TRANSPORT 2025 by John Hawkins

The TfL report Transport 2025 (June 2006) projects an unbelievable 30% increase in peak public transport demand by 2025. It considers three possible options: making the best of the current network, influencing demand, and providing new capacity. The PPP already promises an average 26% increase in LU train service capacity, but provides no capacity increase for stations. Congestion relief schemes are therefore under consideration for Paddington, Tottenham Court Road (both linked to Crossrail), Victoria, and Bank. Roads and LU already operate near capacity, whilst improvements for both are costly after a long legal process. Crossrail, currently before Parliament, is considered essential to meet demand between Heathrow, the City and Docklands. Most short-term relief is anticipated through national rail measures – although few capacity improvements are currently committed. An earlier report, Rail 2025, considered such measures, and is summarised on a double page – I have been unable to trace the original document. The major projects proposed are the Thameslink upgrade with longer, more frequent trains; and a Waterloo terminus upgrade for longer trains to the south-west. Lower cost measures listed are:

1. Four-tracking between Cheshunt and Tottenham Hale, whilst diverting Chingford trains via Stratford into Liverpool Street.
2. Conversion of the Watford line from Harrow & Wealdstone for the Bakerloo.
3. Lengthening trains and platforms on southern and south-eastern lines.
4. Joining up the west and north London lines and the east (ELL) and south London lines.
5. Increasing frequencies to provide new orbital routes between some of London’s busiest town centres and interchange hubs.
6. Additional capacity in the Thames Gateway through longer c2c trains, and integration with DLR and Channel Tunnel Rail Link (CTRL) services.
7. Provision of additional rolling stock, with reconfiguration (? less seats) and refurbishment of existing stock to make best use of infrastructure.

These investments together with Crossrail and some simpler operating patterns would increase peak capacity by up to 40%. (Only Chiltern seems to miss out!). At the same time rail freight demand is expected to grow by over 32%, and additional rail freight sites around the M25 and in London are envisaged, particularly for construction materials. The completion of the CTRL will allow continental-gauge trains (with 25% greater cubic capacity than standard UK trains) to reach London, but gauge improvements will be needed to allow these trains to cross London. Even after all of the above enhancements, there will still be a need for additional investment in newer technologies to get more capacity on the existing network, and for targeted extensions to enable switching from the most crowded routes to those with capacity. The two most crowded corridors mentioned are north-east London to the West End, where additional capacity is required to relieve the Victoria and Piccadilly.

The two most crowded corridors mentioned are north-east London to the West End, where additional capacity is required to relieve the Victoria and Piccadilly lines; and inner south London to central London, where possible extension of the Bakerloo or Northern Line (? from Kennington) south to relieve the Victoria Line (and possibly some national rail services) is mentioned. This area would also benefit from the proposed Cross River Tram which would run through the centre of London between Euston and Waterloo, with branches to Brixton and Peckham in the south, and to Camden Town and King’s Cross in the north. The TfL will now consider the right balance of policy options, taking into account feedback received, to influence revisions of the Mayor’s Transport Strategy, long term investment and policy decisions, and submissions to central Government’s Comprehensive Spending Review and also to their Transport Innovation Fund.

FTA Lorry convoy, platoons of trucks will be common place in 2025.

Christopher Snelling, FTA’s Head of National Policy says, after first announcing the platooning trial in November 2016, it is imperative that government now moves plans forward quickly and efficiently to enable the logistics sector to plan efficiently for the future.

“Platooning could be an innovative means of reducing fuel use so saving costs and reducing carbon and air quality emissions. Driving closely together, platoons of trucks take up less space on the road, and travelling at constant speeds can help improve traffic flows and reduce tailbacks,” says Mr Snelling. “However, the system has to be shown to be safe on the roads and to deliver the promised benefits. The sooner the trial takes place, the sooner the UK logistics industry, which represents 11% of the UK’s non-financial business economy, can know if this will be the right route for the future.

“Technology is the solution to emissions, road safety and managing costs,” concludes Mr Snelling. “Platooning could be a real opportunity to optimise logistics on the road – we need to know if it is the way forward as soon as possible.”

FTA represents all modes of the UK’s freight and logistics sector on behalf of its 16,000 members. The UK remains a leader in logistics at a global level, ranked in the top ten countries in terms of logistics performance, and the sector contributes 11% of the UK’s non-financial business economy. In 2016, 2.54 million people were employed in logistics in the UK, approximately 8% of the UK’s workforce. FTA members operate over 220,000 goods vehicles (half the UK fleet), consign over 90 per cent of the freight moved by rail and 70 per cent of sea and air freight.

RTM report 2025 rail, HS2 complete and Rail North fully developed by 2025

Rail franchises in the north of England should be completely devolved by the time the current franchises expire in 2023-25. In 2016, David Hoggarth said that gaining complete control over the franchises would allow Rail North and Transport for the North (TfN) to choose the best contractors to take advantage of planned upgrades to the network.

The TransPennine Upgrade Programme, due to deliver electrification and faster journey times to the region, was ‘paused’ after going over budget and schedule. It has now started again, but its completion should be achieved by 2022.

Alex Hynes, managing director of Arriva Rail North, also recently echoed Hoggarth’s calls for devolution. In an interview with RTM, the TOC boss said it was “critical” that Network Rail moves forward quickly with the establishment of a new devolved Northern Route.

“For example, many of the new trains are capable of 125mph. Much of the track they currently run on is suitable for 90mph at the most, but if we can improve the line speed we can get more out of the rolling stock and we can make savings in how that’s delivered,”